In a nondescript government building in Kinshasa, a team of Congolese geologists and policy advisors is reshaping a narrative that has defined Africa's relationship with the global economy for centuries. Their work — a comprehensive critical minerals strategy for the Democratic Republic of Congo — represents something more significant than another government white paper. It represents a continent deciding, at last, to set its own terms.
The DRC holds approximately 70% of the world's cobalt reserves and an estimated 3 million tonnes of lithium. These aren't academic statistics. They're the foundation of every electric vehicle battery, every smartphone, every energy storage system that the world's $4 trillion clean energy transition depends upon. And for the first time, the countries that hold these resources are asking a question that should have been asked decades ago: why are we exporting raw materials and importing finished goods?
The Scale of Africa's Mineral Wealth
The numbers are staggering, even for seasoned analysts. Africa holds 30% of the world's known mineral reserves. The continent accounts for:
- 70% of global cobalt production — almost entirely from the DRC
- 30% of global manganese reserves — concentrated in South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana
- A significant share of lithium deposits — with Zimbabwe, DRC, Mali, and Namibia emerging as major players
- 90% of the world's platinum group metals — overwhelmingly in South Africa
- Growing rare earth element discoveries — from Tanzania to Madagascar to Malawi
What makes this moment different from previous commodity cycles is the nature of demand. These aren't luxury commodities or construction materials subject to cyclical fluctuations. They are structural inputs for an energy transition that major economies have committed to through legally binding targets. The International Energy Agency estimates that demand for lithium will increase 42-fold by 2040. Cobalt demand will triple. Nickel will double.
The Policy Revolution
In Harare, Zimbabwe's Mines and Mining Development Ministry banned the export of raw lithium in December 2022 — a move that initially spooked investors but has since attracted $2.8 billion in committed processing investment. The message was clear: if you want Zimbabwe's lithium, you process it in Zimbabwe.
"This isn't resource nationalism. This is resource intelligence. If Australia and Chile can insist on domestic value addition, why can't African nations do the same?"
The ban forced a reckoning. Chinese mining companies, which had been extracting and shipping raw ore for processing in Jiangxi province, were suddenly compelled to build local processing facilities. Sinomine Resource Group broke ground on a $200 million lithium processing plant in Bikita in 2024. Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe committed to a $300 million concentrator plant. The jobs, the tax revenue, and the industrial knowledge that come with processing are now staying on the continent.
Similar moves are underway across the continent. Namibia banned the export of unprocessed lithium, cobalt, manganese, graphite, and rare earth minerals. Tanzania introduced new regulations requiring mining companies to list on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange, ensuring domestic capital markets participation in the sector's growth. The African Union's Africa Mining Vision — once dismissed as aspirational — is becoming operational policy.
The Investment Case
For global investors, these developments create a more complex but ultimately more attractive investment landscape. The old model — invest in extraction, export raw materials, minimise local engagement — is dead. The new model requires deeper partnerships, longer time horizons, and genuine technology transfer.
But the returns are substantial. Processing lithium into battery-grade lithium carbonate increases its value by approximately 800%. Cobalt refining adds 300-500% in value. Current global processing capacity is overwhelmingly concentrated in China (approximately 65% of lithium processing, 80% of cobalt refining) — a concentration risk that Western governments are desperate to diversify.
The United States' Inflation Reduction Act, the European Union's Critical Raw Materials Act, and Japan's Economic Security Promotion Act all contain provisions that incentivise sourcing from "friendly" nations with transparent governance. African countries that can offer political stability, regulatory clarity, and processing infrastructure are positioning themselves as the preferred alternative to Chinese dominance.
Key Investment Corridors
Three corridors are emerging as the most investable:
The Southern African Battery Belt: From the DRC's cobalt heartland through Zambia's copper belt to Zimbabwe's lithium fields and South Africa's PGM complex. This corridor has existing rail infrastructure, established mining regulation, and deepening cross-border cooperation under SADC frameworks.
The East African Rare Earth Corridor: Tanzania, Malawi, and Madagascar hold significant rare earth deposits that are only now being fully explored. Tanzania in particular has attracted interest from European and Japanese companies seeking to diversify supply chains.
The West African Manganese-Bauxite Arc: Ghana, Gabon, and Guinea hold vast reserves of manganese and bauxite — essential inputs for batteries and lightweight vehicle components respectively.
Risks and Realities
Any honest assessment must acknowledge the risks. Governance challenges persist in several key mining jurisdictions. Artisanal and small-scale mining, particularly in the DRC's cobalt sector, raises serious ESG concerns that institutional investors cannot ignore. Infrastructure deficits — power supply, road networks, port capacity — remain binding constraints.
Currency volatility in several producer nations adds a layer of financial risk that requires careful hedging. And the geopolitical competition between the US, EU, and China for African mineral access creates policy uncertainty as governments navigate competing offers and demands.
But these are risks to be managed, not reasons to disengage. The structural story — irreversible demand growth meeting concentrated supply in a continent that is finally leveraging its geological advantage — is compelling. The investors who understand this, who engage with African governments as partners rather than extractors, will be the ones who capture the value.
The Bigger Picture
What's happening in critical minerals is a microcosm of a broader shift. Africa is moving from price-taker to price-maker. From commodity exporter to industrial participant. From the periphery of global supply chains to an indispensable node.
The energy transition cannot happen without Africa. This is a geological fact, not an aspiration. And for the first time in modern economic history, the continent has the policy frameworks, the institutional knowledge, and the demographic dividend to capture the value that its resources create.
The question is no longer whether Africa will play a central role in the global energy transition. It's whether global investors will be part of the story — or whether they'll watch from the sidelines as the continent's mineral wealth transforms it from the inside out.